Projections & Scenario Planning Dashboard

Climate & Ecosystem Projections 2030-2050 | Risk Assessment & Adaptation Pathways

Long-Term Climate Projections (2030-2050)

Comprehensive modeling of future climate and ecosystem trajectories based on current trends and intervention scenarios.

0.15 → 0.08
NDVI Projection (by 2050)
+1.5K
LST Warming
7-8%
Soil Moisture Range
70%
Crisis State Frequency

Tipping Point Alert: Irreversible ecosystem degradation likely by 2040 under current trajectory. Critical intervention window: 2025-2035.

Scenario Analysis Matrix

Three plausible futures based on different levels of intervention and climate action.

Business as Usual

Outcome: Complete ecosystem collapse

Timeline: 2040-2050

Risks: Permanent desertification, Loss of agricultural capacity

Moderate Intervention

Outcome: Stabilization at degraded level

Timeline: Maintain current state

Requirements: Sustained conservation efforts

Aggressive Restoration

Outcome: Partial recovery possible

Timeline: 20-30 year window

Requirements: Major investment, System transformation

Risk Assessment & Vulnerability Mapping

Spatial analysis of climate risks and community vulnerability across the region.

High Risk
Areas with SM < 10%
Moderate Risk
Transition zones
Climate Refugia
Stable areas
High Pressure
Migration zones

Vulnerability Factors

  • Livelihood dependence: Agricultural communities at highest risk
  • Water access: Groundwater-dependent regions most vulnerable
  • Adaptive capacity: Limited resources increase susceptibility

Economic Impact Projections

Financial implications of climate change and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation measures.

Sector Annual Impact by 2040 Cumulative (20 years) Risk Level
Agricultural Losses $50-100M $1-2B HIGH
Water Security Costs $20-40M $400-800M HIGH
Ecosystem Services 70-80% reduction $500M+ value loss MEDIUM
Adaptation Costs $5-10M/year $100-200M total INVESTMENT

Cost-Benefit Insight: Every $1 invested in adaptation saves $3-5 in future damages. Early intervention provides highest return.

Adaptation Pathway Analysis

Phased approach to climate adaptation with specific actions for different timeframes.

2025-2030

Emergency Measures

  • Water conservation
  • Drought-resistant crops
  • Early warning systems

2031-2040

System Transformation

  • Infrastructure development
  • Ecosystem restoration
  • Policy implementation

2041-2050

Sustainable Systems

  • Climate-resilient agriculture
  • Renewable energy transition
  • Adaptive governance

Implementation Gap: Current policies cover only 40% of required 2025-2030 actions. Acceleration needed to stay on pathway.

Uncertainty & Confidence Intervals

Quantification of projection uncertainties and key external factors influencing outcomes.

Model Confidence Ranges

Temperature Projections: ±0.5K range

Vegetation Response: ±15% NDVI range

Intervention Effectiveness: ±25% outcome variability

External Factors

Factor Influence Uncertainty
Global Climate Policy High ±30% impact
Regional Development Medium ±20% impact
Technology Adoption Medium-High ±25% impact
Market Conditions Low-Medium ±15% impact

Key Insight: Despite uncertainties, 90% of model runs show significant degradation by 2040 without intervention.